A diversity of sustainable lifestyles in 2050: Future SLIM scenario narratives for deep climate change mitigation

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Energy Research and Social Science A diversity of sustainable lifestyles in twenty fifty: Future SLIM scenario narratives for deep climate change mitigation

ABSTRACT

Sustainable lifestyle changes can play a critical role in climate change mitigation. This paper presents and discusses a set of four comprehensive lifestyle scenario narratives, collectively named Sustainable Living in Models, or SLIM, scenario narratives. These narratives describe plausible alternative long-term pathways in which lifestyle changes play a major role in achieving many sustainability goals. As narratives, they support strategic dialogue and form the basis for model-based scenario analysis. The four SLIM scenario narratives emerged from multidisciplinary workshops with lifestyle change experts, scenario analysts and integrated assessment modellers. The narratives diverge along two critical uncertainties: focus on individual versus communal values and the level of access to centralised versus distributed support for the transition to sustainable lifestyles. These SLIM scenario narratives enable explorations of our underlying assumptions of lifestyle changes while also determining the robustness of plausible developments and strategies. The SLIM scenario narratives emphasise the role of society, enablers, lifestyles and behaviours in systems change. We also describe the SLIM scenario narratives in terms of contrasting characteristics. The SLIM scenario narratives provide a theoretical contribution by supporting a greater understanding of the role of sustainable lifestyles in climate change mitigation while also providing less-stylised assumptions for model-based scenarios. The enduring impact of this scenario development process is to enable continued exchange among an emerging community of practice of modellers and sustainable lifestyle practitioners. Most notably, the narratives can allow for strategic discussion and climate action by policymakers.

One. Introduction

Achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires major changes in demand and supply-side systems. In the past, most scenario studies assessed by IPCC focused on technological changes and energy efficiency improvements to reduce emissions - the 'supply-side'. In the last few years, several studies have shown that lifestyle and behaviour changes - the 'demand-side' - can also contribute significantly to climate change mitigation. Based on recent studies, IPCC

estimates that with the right sociocultural factors, technologies, policies and infrastructure in place, demand-side options, including lifestyle and behaviour changes, can result in a forty to seventy percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by twenty fifty. Furthermore, Cap et al. even state that "a robust mitigation pathway for one point five degrees Celsius will require demand-side mitigation contributions nearing the upper limit estimated by the IPCC."

One point one. Problem statement

One point two. Objectives

Two. Key literature for scenario planning on sustainable lifestyles in systems change

Two point one. Sustainable lifestyles in systems change

Two point two. Scenario planning and interpretation

Three. Methodology

Three point one. Reference SLIM scenario narratives "Behaviour-as-Usual"

Three point two. Criteria definition

Three point three. Developing the SLIM scenario narratives

Three point three point one. Iteration one: scenario logics

Three point three point two. Iteration Two: scenario matrix

Three point three point three. Iteration Three: scenario characteristics

Three point three point four. Iteration Four: scenario testing

Four. Results: SLIM scenario narratives

Four point one. SLIM scenario narratives framing

Four point two. Scenario narrative descriptions

Four point three. Levels of change in lifestyle narrative scenarios

Four point three point one. Societal changes

Four point three point two. Enabling factors

Four point three point three. Lifestyle changes

Four point three point four. Behavioural changes

Four point four. Scenario narratives compared across characteristics

Five. Discussion

Six. Conclusion

Six point one. Structural support and value systems can shape lifestyle changes in different ways

Six point two. Behaviours and lifestyles can change dynamically in response to systemic enablers and shifts in society

Six point three. The SLIM scenario narratives highlight various characteristics of how and why lifestyles could change

Six point four. Details on the extent and speed of lifestyle changes can be vital for scenario quantitative modelling

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Data availability

Overview

This research illustrates the development of four scenario narratives that outline potential lifestyle changes necessary for deep climate change mitigation by 2050. The Sustainable Living in Models (SLIM) scenarios provide strategic insights into how shifts in behaviors can support sustainability goals, emphasizing the importance of both individual and communal approaches.

Key Points

1The SLIM scenarios were developed through engagement with lifestyle change experts and modelers
2They highlight the critical role of lifestyle changes in achieving climate mitigation goals
3The narratives diverge based on values and access to support for sustainability
4These scenarios provide a framework for strategic discussions among policymakers and practitioners
5The combination of qualitative narratives and quantitative modeling offers a comprehensive approach to understanding lifestyle changes in climate action

Details

Authors: Nicole J. van den Berg, Lauren Thu, Andries F. Hof, Vanessa J. Timmer, Lewis Akenji, Nicole-Anne Boyer, Detlef P. van Vuuren
Category: Environmental Studies

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