Energy Research and Social Science A diversity of sustainable lifestyles in twenty fifty: Future SLIM scenario narratives for deep climate change mitigation
Energy Research and Social Science A diversity of sustainable lifestyles in twenty fifty: Future SLIM scenario narratives for deep climate change mitigation
ABSTRACT
Sustainable lifestyle changes can play a critical role in climate change mitigation. This paper presents and discusses a set of four comprehensive lifestyle scenario narratives, collectively named Sustainable Living in Models, or SLIM, scenario narratives. These narratives describe plausible alternative long-term pathways in which lifestyle changes play a major role in achieving many sustainability goals. As narratives, they support strategic dialogue and form the basis for model-based scenario analysis. The four SLIM scenario narratives emerged from multidisciplinary workshops with lifestyle change experts, scenario analysts and integrated assessment modellers. The narratives diverge along two critical uncertainties: focus on individual versus communal values and the level of access to centralised versus distributed support for the transition to sustainable lifestyles. These SLIM scenario narratives enable explorations of our underlying assumptions of lifestyle changes while also determining the robustness of plausible developments and strategies. The SLIM scenario narratives emphasise the role of society, enablers, lifestyles and behaviours in systems change. We also describe the SLIM scenario narratives in terms of contrasting characteristics. The SLIM scenario narratives provide a theoretical contribution by supporting a greater understanding of the role of sustainable lifestyles in climate change mitigation while also providing less-stylised assumptions for model-based scenarios. The enduring impact of this scenario development process is to enable continued exchange among an emerging community of practice of modellers and sustainable lifestyle practitioners. Most notably, the narratives can allow for strategic discussion and climate action by policymakers.
One. Introduction
One. Introduction
Achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires major changes in demand and supply-side systems. In the past, most scenario studies assessed by IPCC focused on technological changes and energy efficiency improvements to reduce emissions - the 'supply-side'. In the last few years, several studies have shown that lifestyle and behaviour changes - the 'demand-side' - can also contribute significantly to climate change mitigation. Based on recent studies, IPCC
estimates that with the right sociocultural factors, technologies, policies and infrastructure in place, demand-side options, including lifestyle and behaviour changes, can result in a forty to seventy percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by twenty fifty. Furthermore, Cap et al. even state that "a robust mitigation pathway for one point five degrees Celsius will require demand-side mitigation contributions nearing the upper limit estimated by the IPCC."