Assessing Strategies for Mitigating Maritime Chokepoint Disruptions

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Assessing Strategies for Mitigating Maritime Chokepoint Disruptions

Transportation Research Part A Assessing Strategies for Mitigating Maritime Chokepoint Disruptions -- Manuscript Draft --

Cover Letter

Dear editors,

I would like to submit the manuscript for consideration in the Journal of Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice for the special issue "Transportation resilience and its role in regional economic development". My article is entitled:

"Assessing Strategies for Mitigating Maritime Chokepoint Disruptions".

A study addresses a key gap in disruption management, specifically the need to evaluate blockage mitigation strategies, such as rerouting and waiting strategies, for primary chokepoints in the maritime business, within the context of considering the full cost of shipping, and the factors that impact the choice of those strategies.

A central novelty of the work is the use of Discrete Event Simulation to model and assess mitigation strategies, and the A-star algorithm for finding optimal rerouting pathways. The considered case in this research is the container flow between Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal, with various durations of blockage. The aforementioned approaches enable the assessment of various costs from different perspectives (e.g., time, operational, carbon dioxide emission, and societal costs) of complex operational variables, e.g., the variety of possible transit demand via the Suez Canal (the unpredictability of accumulating queues for passage), the demand for cargo transportation between Europe and Asia, and the vessels affected by blockages. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis, combined with Random Forest, highlights the most critical factors that stakeholders should consider when making a decision.

Findings reveal the dominance of rerouting strategies in terms of speed for all considered blockage duration scenarios from a time cost perspective. However, from three other perspectives (operational, emission, and societal costs), the increased speed results in additional costs that outweigh the benefits of rerouting from a time perspective. For long considered blockages, rerouting can be a solution, but only with the normal (not increased) speed.

Moreover, sensitivity analyses reveal the impact of freight rates for all considered mitigation pathways. In contrast, inventory cost is the second most crucial factor for strategies involving waiting at the end of the blockage and rerouting at normal speed. The Energy Efficiency Design Index sufficiently impacts the recruiting strategies along with the fuel cost.

This manuscript is original, has not been published, and is not currently under consideration elsewhere. The first version of this research was presented at two conferences. First, at the "The Transportation Research Symposium" in Rotterdam, May twenty-five to twenty-eight, twenty twenty-five. Second, at the "IAME" in Bergen, June twenty-five to twenty-seven, twenty twenty-five.

I believe my manuscript aligns with the journal's aim, given its emphasis on the maritime, environmental, cost, and time implications of blockage mitigation strategy selection, factors affecting this choice, methodological innovation, and policy-relevant insights into sustainable shipping. Based on my interpretation of the special issue, the themes raised in the manuscript consider transportation resilience, economic impacts of transportation resilience (understanding transportation resilience and economic impacts of transportation resilience, respectively), and partially in emerging challenges (emerging challenges in transportation resilience), since the model can be implemented in such cases.

In my opinion, this research contributes to the literature on disruption management by considering rerouting strategies (recovery pathways) and the factors influencing them, as well as resilience at the regional level by evaluating the different types of costs, time, and environmental footprint associated with decisions.

Thank you for considering my submission. I look forward to your response.

Best wishes, Mikhail Strukov.

Highlights

Manuscript file Assessing Strategies for Mitigating Maritime Chokepoint Disruptions

One Introduction

Two Literature review

Two point one Generalized freight cost

Two point two Societal costs

Two point three Blockage mitigation strategies

Three Methodology

Three point one A-star algorithm

Three point two Discrete Event Simulation

Three point three Evaluation criteria

Four. Results

Four point one. Transportation time and time costs

Four point two. Operational cost

Four point three. Emissions cost

Four point four. Societal cost

Five Sensitivity analyses

Five point one Energy Efficiency Design Index and Freight rate, depreciation, and charter costs

Five point two Energy Efficiency Design Index and Fuel cost

Five point three Random Forest analyses

Six Conclusions and further research

Design fuel consumption

Vessel's speed consumption Cubic Law

Fuel consumption during anchorage

Fuel cost

Crew cost

Abstract:

Overview

The study addresses maritime chokepoint vulnerabilities, specifically the Suez Canal, and develops a model for assessing blockage mitigation strategies. Findings highlight the trade-offs between rerouting speed and various costs, aiming to aid decision-makers in optimizing shipping operations during disruptions.

Key Points

1Evaluates strategies for mitigating maritime chokepoints blockages
2Assesses strategies from time, operational, carbon dioxide, and societal cost perspectives
3Provides policy guidance for resilient planning of chokepoint disruptions
4Applies A-star and Discrete Event Simulation for assessment
5Considers Suez Canal disruption as a case study

Details

Authors: Mikhail Strukov
Category: Government and Policy

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